Electorate opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election
 2019 Australian federal election |
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| National results |
| State and territory results |
Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2019 Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House of Representatives.
New South Wales
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | UAP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 36.2% | 29.2% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 8.8% | 52.6% | 47.8% | ||
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 52% | 47% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 45.3% | 39.2% | — | 10.5% | — | 5.0% | 49.3% | 50.7% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | UAP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 46.5% | 35.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 7.3% | 55.0% | 45.0% | ||
| 9–11 May 2019 | Newspoll[2] | 500-580 | 44% | 39% | 4% | 6% | — | — | 52% | 48% | |
| 20 Apr 2019 | Newspoll[3][4] | 618 | 41% | 40% | 4% | 7% | — | 8% | 49% | 51% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 39.3% | 41.1% | 3.6% | — | 2.4% | 13.7% | 48.9% | 51.1% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | UAP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 44.9% | 38.3% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 50.2% | 49.8% | ||
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | — | — | — | 53% | 47% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 38.2% | 35.5% | 11.2% | — | 15.1% | 52.2% | 47.8% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | UAP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 48.3% | 37.2% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 53.2% | 46.8% | ||
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | — | — | — | 52% | 48% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 48.8% | 36.3% | 8.5% | — | 6.4% | 54.7% | 45.3% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | LIB | ALP | GRN | IND | UAP | OTH | IND | LIB | GRN | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 43.5% | 39.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 57.2% | 42.3% | — | ||
| 9 Feb 2019 (released) | ReachTEL[a][5] | 618 | 22.3% | 37.7% | 15.0% | 9.6% | 4.9% | — | 5.7% | 54.0% | 46.0% | — | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | — | 51.7% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 12.1% | — | 9.2% | — | 61.6% | 38.4% | ||
Queensland
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNP | ALP | ONP | UAP | GRN | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 37.9% | 28.7% | 19.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 58.7% | 41.3% | ||
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | — | 11% | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 37.1% | 33.4% | 17.2% | — | 2.8% | 9.6% | 51.0% | 49.0% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNP | ALP | ONP | KAP | GRN | UAP | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 37.1% | 25.5% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 58.4% | 41.6% | ||
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | — | — | — | 14% | — | — | — | |
| 9–11 May 2019 | Newspoll[2] | 500-580 | 35% | 30% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 7% | — | 52% | 48% | |
| 20 Apr 2019 | Newspoll[3][4] | 529 | 31% | 29% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 14% | 2% | 50% | 50% | |
| 24 Jan 2019 | Newspoll[6] | 509 | 32% | 32% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 49% | 51% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 35.5% | 30.5% | 13.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 0.4% | 7.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
Victoria
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | UAP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 47.8% | 32.5% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 8.6% | 54.8% | 45.2% | ||
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | 49% | |
| 20 Apr 2019 | Newspoll[3][4] | 535 | 46% | 39% | 8% | 5% | — | 51% | 49% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 50.0% | 31.0% | 11.7% | — | 7.2% | 55.7% | 44.3% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | IND | GRN | UAP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 49.4% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 55.7% | 44.3% | ||
| 24 Jan 2019 | ReachTEL/uComms[6][7] | 500–700 | 36.8% | — | — | — | — | — | 49% | 51% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 51.6% | 27.0% | 3.1% | 10.7% | — | 7.6% | 57.8% | 42.2% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | UAP | OTH | LIB | ALP | GRN | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 47.9% | 25.4% | 22.5% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 55.7% | 44.3% | — | ||
| 13 May 2019 (released) | ER&C[b][8] | 400 | 36% | 30% | 29% | — | — | 46% | — | 54% | |
| Mid-May 2019 | YouGov Galaxy[1] | 500+ | — | — | 29% | — | — | 52% | — | 48% | |
| 24 Jan 2019 | ReachTEL/uComms[7] | 500–700 | — | — | — | — | — | 48% | 52% | — | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 52.0% | 15.0% | 25.3% | — | 7.7% | 58.0% | — | 42.0% | ||
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | GRN | ALP | IND | UAP | OTH | LIB | GRN | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 49.4% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 55.7% | 44.3% | — | ||
| 13 May 2019 (released) | ER&C[b][9] | 1,741 | 41% | 21% | 16% | 9% | — | 8% | 52% | 48% | — | |
| 11 Dec 2018 | ReachTEL[c][10][11] | 816 | 40% | 16% | 29% | — | — | 8% | 48% | — | 52% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 58.2% | 18.9% | 19.8% | 3.1% | — | — | 63.3% | — | 36.7% | ||
Western Australia
| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | UAP | NAT | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
| 18 May 2019 | 2019 federal election | 43.7% | 29.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 6.5% | 54.8% | 45.2% | ||
| 20 Apr 2019 | Newspoll[3][4] | 509 | 40% | 36% | 8% | 6% | 8% | — | — | 50% | 50% | |
| 2 Jul 2016 | 2016 federal election | 45.4% | 34.3% | 11.0% | — | — | 4.7% | 4.7% | 53.6% | 46.4% | ||
See also
Notes
References
- ^ a b c d e f g Packham, Ben (17 May 2019). "Polls suggest Morrison well in the fight". The Australian.
- ^ a b Beaumont, Adrian (14 May 2019). "Poll wrap: Labor maintains 51-49 Newspoll lead, plus many seat polls". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 24 May 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2025.
- ^ a b c d Bowe, William (23 April 2019). "Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 4 October 2024. Retrieved 2 April 2025.
- ^ a b c d Beaumont, Adrian (25 April 2019). "Poll wrap: Palmer's party has good support in Newspoll seat polls, but is it realistic?". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 7 August 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2025.
- ^ McCauley, Dana (9 February 2019). "GetUp poll points to Abbott electoral defeat". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 30 March 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
- ^ a b Bowe, William (28 January 2019). "Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 28 November 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
- ^ a b Beaumont, Adrian (30 January 2019). "Poll wrap: Coalition gains in first Newspoll of 2019, but big swings to Labor in Victorian seats; NSW is tied". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 20 January 2025. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
- ^ Murphy, Katharine (13 May 2019). "Higgins polling suggests Greens could take seat from Liberals in upset". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 9 August 2022. Retrieved 5 April 2025.
- ^ Murphy, Katharine (13 May 2019). "Greens within striking distance in Josh Frydenberg's seat of Kooyong, poll finds". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 18 September 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
- ^ Beaumont, Adrian (18 December 2018). "Poll wrap: Labor widens lead in Ipsos; US Democrats gained 40 House seats at midterms". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 20 July 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
- ^ Colebatch, Tim (4 March 2019). "Twilight of the Liberals?". Inside Story. Archived from the original on 15 September 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
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