Opinion polling for the 2025 Tasmanian state election

In the lead-up to the 2025 Tasmanian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individual electoral division results.

Voting intention

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties 2PP vote[a]
LIB ALP GRN NAT SFF JLN IND OTH LIB ALP
20 July 2025 2025 election 39.9% 25.9% 14.4% 1.6% 2.9% — 15.3% — —
7–18 Jul 2025 YouGov[2][3][4] 931 ±3.2% 31% 30% 16% 2% 1% — 20% — 45% 55%
Mid-Jul 2025 EMRS[b][5][6] 500 37% 26% 14% — — — 19% — —
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 3,421 ±2.1% 34.9% 24.7% 15.6% 2.7% 1.8% — 20.3% — —
6–8 Jul 2025 EMRS[b][11][12][13] 518 37% 26% 15% 3% — — 18% 0% —
29 Jun–1 Jul 2025 EMRS[b][14] 550 34.5% 28.2% 13.9% 2.1% — — 17.8% 3.5% —
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 4,289 34.0% 27.3% 15.1% 2.3% 3.0% — 19.3% — —
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[15][17][18][19] 1,287 ±3.4% 31% 34% 13% — — — 18% 4% —
15–17 Jun 2025 EMRS[b][14] 550 32.3% 28.7% 14% 1.8% — — 19.2% 3.9% —
11 Jun 2025 The 2025 Tasmanian state election is called for 19 July
5 Jun 2025 No-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff passes
13–17 May 2025 EMRS[20][21][22][23] 1,000 ±3.1% 29% 31% 14% — — 6% — 17% —
11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS[24][25] 1,000 ±3.1% 34% 30% 13% — — 8% — 12% —
5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS[26] 1,000 ±3.1% 35% 31% 14% — — 6% — 14% —
2–11 Oct 2024 EMRS[27] 500 28% 26% 17% — — 5% — 1%[c] —
29 Aug 2024 Jacqui Lambie Network announces it won't run candidates in next state election
14–21 Aug 2024 EMRS[26] 1,000 36% 27% 14% — — 8% — 15% —
6–29 Aug 2024 Wolf & Smith[28][29] 786 ±3.5% 32% 23% 14% — — 11% — 20% —
16–23 May 2024 EMRS[30] 1,000 35% 28% 15% — — 7% — 15% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 36.7% 29.0% 13.9% — 2.3% 6.7% 9.6% 1.8% —

Bass

Voting intention

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties
LIB ALP GRN NAT SFF JLN IND OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 723 ±4.5% 37.6% 26.0% 20.0% 3.5% 0.5% — 12.4% —
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 33.5% 27.5% 18.8% 5.1% 4.0% — 11.1% —
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[15][17][18][19] 253 ±6% 36% 34% 12% — — — 15% 2%
21 May 2024 2024 election 38.0% 29.8% 12.0% — 2.4% 8.1% 8.2% 1.8%

Liberal candidates

Date Firm Liberal candidates
Archer Fairs Ferguson Gatenby Quaile Sladden Wood OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 19.6% 4.1% 7.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.2% —
21 May 2024 2024 election — 8.4% 18.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.7%

Labor candidates

Date Firm Labor candidates
Anderson Finlay Gordon Greene Lyons Moore Thomas OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 2.1% 9.4% 1.5% 5.1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.7% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 1.3% 10.8% 1.6% 2.5 2.5% — — 13.7%

Independent candidates

Date Firm Independent candidates
Razay Pentland Other independents
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 5.1% 4.3% 3.0%
21 May 2024 2024 election 1.8% 3.5%[d] 6.2%

Braddon

Voting intention

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties
LIB ALP GRN NAT SFF JLN IND OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 623 ±4.7% 40.8% 23.5% 9.5% 3.2% 1.8% — 21.2% —
6–8 Jul 2025 EMRS[b][11][12][13] 44% 24% 10% — — — — —
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 44.0% 25.2% 9.3% 2.6% 3.3% — 15.6% —
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[15][17][18][19] 250 ±6% 35% 34% 5% — — — 19% 7%
21 May 2024 2024 election 45.6% 24.7% 6.6% — 2.9% 11.4% 7.5% 1.2%

Liberal candidates

Date Firm Liberal candidates
Ellis Jaensch Parry Pearce Rockliff Simpson Wylie OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 5.4% 2.4% 0.9% 5.8% 24.6% 1.0% 0.6% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 7.3% 3.8% — — 27.6% 2.6% — 2.3%

Labor candidates

Date Firm Labor candidates
Broad Diprose Dow Fuller Hunt Luke Woodhouse OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 3.4% 3.0% 10.4% 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 6.5% 2.1% 8.2% — — 1.4% — 6.6%

Independent candidates

Date Firm Independent candidates
Garland Martin Other independents
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 13.7% 3.2% 4.3%
21 May 2024 2024 election 5.1% — 2.4%

Clark

Voting intention

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties
ALP LIB GRN SFF IND OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 647 ±5.1% 25.6% 28.1% 22.7% — 23.6% —
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 23.6% 26.2% 22.7% — 27.5% —
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[15][17][18][19] 251 ±6% 27% 24% 17% — 30% 2%
21 May 2024 2024 election 30.5% 27.1% 20.9% 1.5% 17.6% 2.4%

Labor candidates

Date Firm Labor candidates
Haddad Kamara Martin McLaren McLaughlin Shirley Willie OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 7.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.2% 2.6% 1.8% 9.3% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 10.9% 2.7% — — — — 8.9% 7.9%

Liberal candidates

Date Firm Liberal candidates
Barnett Behrakis Di Florio Johnstone Ogilvie Vermey Wan OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 1.0% 6.8% 3.4% 1.5% 6.2% 8.3% 0.8% —
21 May 2024 2024 election — 8.1% — — 7.3% 5.5% — 6.3%

Greens candidates

Date Firm Greens candidates
Bayley Burnet Other Greens candidates
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 7.1% 10.4% 5.2%
21 May 2024 2024 election 9.9% 5.4% 5.6%

Independent candidates

Date Firm Independent candidates
Archer Johnston Other independents
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 4.3% 17.3% 2.1%
21 May 2024 2024 election — 7.7% 9.4%

Franklin

Voting intention

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN IND OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 804 ±4.4% 31.7% 22.4% 10.7% — 35.2% —
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 29.1% 22.6% 12.9% — 35.4% —
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[15][17][18][19] 266 ±6% 31% 38% 9% — 20% 2%
21 May 2024 2024 election 34.0% 27.3% 19.8% 4.9% 11.8% 2.4%

Liberal candidates

Date Firm Liberal candidates
Abetz Garvin Howlett Miller Petrusma Street Young OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 10.8% 4.6% 1.3% 2.0% 7.6% 4.4% 1.0% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 9.2% 1.3% — — 8.5% 6.7% 4.3% 4.0%

Labor candidates

Date Firm Labor candidates
Brown Deane Di Virgilio Hannan Meyers Munday Winter OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 4.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 4.2% 10.1% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 5.0% 2.5% — — — — 11.2% 8.6%

Independent candidates

Date Firm Independent candidates
George O'Byrne Other independents
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 18.2% 13.7% 3.4%
21 May 2024 2024 election — 8.8% 3.0%

Lyons

Voting intention

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties
LIB ALP GRN NAT SFF JLN IND OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 624 ±5.2% 35.5% 26.2% 16.3% 6.1% 4.1% — 11.8% —
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 35.9% 31.9% 13.1% 3.7% 7.0% — 8.4% —
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[15][17][18][19] 267 ±6% 34% 34% 13% — — — 15% 4%
21 May 2024 2024 election 37.6% 32.8% 10.9% — 4.8% 8.3% 4.0% 1.6%

Liberal candidates

Date Firm Liberal candidates
Barnett Cameron Groves Hallett Howlett Lyne Shelton OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 8.5% 3.9% 0.7% 3.0% 13.5% 1.1% 4.9% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 11.1% 3.9% — 2.5% 9.2% — 7.0% 3.8%

Labor candidates

Date Firm Labor candidates
Batt Butler Campbell Farrell Goss Mitchell O'Donnell OTH
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 1.6% 11.1% 1.5% 2.8% 2.5% 5.3% 1.4% —
21 May 2024 2024 election 1.4% 3.2% — 1.6% 2.4% — — 24.2%

Nationals candidates

Date Firm Nationals candidates
Jenner Tucker Other Nationals candidates
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 1.1% 3.8% 0.9%
21 May 2024 2024 election 2.9%[d] 3.1%[e] —

Independent candidates

Date Firm Independent candidates
Offord Other independents
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 6.2% 5.6%
21 May 2024 2024 election 0.3% 3.7%

Leadership polling

Preferred premier

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Party leaders
Rockliff Winter Unsure
7–18 Jul 2025 YouGov[f][2][3][4] 931 ±3.2% 45% 55% —
Mid-Jul 2025 EMRS[b][5][6] 44% 29% 27%
6–10 Jul 2025 DemosAU[7][8][9][10] 3,421 ±2.1% 40.7% 31.1% 28.2%
6–8 Jul 2025 EMRS[b][11][12] 500 43% 30% 27%
29 Jun–1 Jul 2025 EMRS[b][14] 550 44% 32% 24%
19–26 Jun 2025 DemosAU[15][16][17] 4,289 41% 32% 27%
12–24 Jun 2025 YouGov[18] 1,287 ±3.4% 43% 36% 21%
13–17 May 2025 EMRS[22] 1,000 ±3.1% 44% 32% 23%
11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS[24][25] 1,000 ±3.1% 44% 34% 21%
5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS[26] 1,000 ±3.1% 43% 37% 19%
14–21 Aug 2024 EMRS[26] 1,000 45% 30% 25%
16–23 May 2021 EMRS[26] 1,000 40% 32% 26%

Favourability ratings

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rockliff Winter
Fav Neutral Unfav Unsure Net Fav Neutral Unfav Unsure Net
11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS[24][25] 1,000 ±3.1% 36% 29% 25% 3% +10% 18% 34% 11% 10% +6%
5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS[26] 1,000 ±3.1% 37% 36% 22% 3% +15% 25% 38% 11% 8% +14%

Notes

  1. ^ While Tasmania's Hare–Clark electoral system does use semi-optional preferential voting, a two-party-preferred count is generally not provided as the House of Assembly electorates are multi-member, not single-member.[1][2]
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Commissioned by the Liberal Party.
  3. ^ 8% unsure/prefer not to say
  4. ^ a b As a Jacqui Lambie Network candidate.
  5. ^ As an independent candidate.
  6. ^ Respondents were asked who their preferred premier was in the event of a hung parliament.[2][3][4]

References

  1. ^ "How Should We Solve The Problem Of Unintended Informal Voting?". Dr Kevin Bonham. 23 July 2020. Archived from the original on 18 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
  2. ^ a b c d "Tasmania 2025: YouGov Has Majors Much Closer". Dr Kevin Bonham. 18 July 2025. Archived from the original on 18 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
  3. ^ a b c "Tasmanians favour Dean Winter for Premier in event of Hung Parliament". YouGov Australia. 18 July 2025. Archived from the original on 18 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
  4. ^ a b c Holmes, Adam (18 July 2025). "YouGov poll shows Tasmania set for another hung parliament, with Labor leader preferred in minority". ABC News. Archived from the original on 18 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
  5. ^ a b Killick, David (17 July 2025). "Libs lead, but minority government certain: EMRS poll shows". The Mercury. Archived from the original on 17 July 2025. Retrieved 17 July 2025.
  6. ^ a b Bowe, William (17 July 2025). "Tasmanian election minus one day". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 17 July 2025. Retrieved 17 July 2025.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x "Tasmanian Election Polling 06-10 July 2025" (PDF). DemosAU. 11 July 2025. Archived from the original on 15 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x "Hung parliament: Poll shows swing to crossbench as Liberals face minority rule". Pulse Tasmania. 13 July 2025. Archived from the original on 13 July 2025. Retrieved 13 July 2025.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x "Tasmania on track for another hung parliament: New Poll". DemosAU. 14 July 2025. Archived from the original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x "DemosAU: More Friendly Fire Than Seat Swing?". Dr Kevin Bonham. 14 July 2025. Archived from the original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
  11. ^ a b c Seeder, Benjamin (10 July 2025). "Liberals up six per cent since campaign start, new EMRS poll suggests". The Advocate. Archived from the original on 10 July 2025. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  12. ^ a b c "Liberals take 11-point lead over Labor, EMRS poll shows". Pulse Tasmania. 10 July 2025. Archived from the original on 10 July 2025. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  13. ^ a b Bowe, William (10 July 2025). "Tasmanian election minus nine days". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 10 July 2025. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  14. ^ a b c Inglis, Rob (6 July 2025). "Liberal support growing, Labor's faltering in lead-up to state election, polling indicates". The Mercury. Archived from the original on 6 July 2025. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  15. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Beaumont, Adrian (1 July 2025). "2 polls have Tasmania headed for another hung parliament, but disagree on which party is ahead". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 1 July 2025. Retrieved 2 July 2025.
  16. ^ a b c d e f g "New poll shows Liberals in front as Tasmanians want majority government". Pulse Tasmania. 2 July 2025. Archived from the original on 2 July 2025. Retrieved 2 July 2025.
  17. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "There Must Be Some Way Out Of Here: YouGov and DemosAU Tasmanian Polls". Dr Kevin Bonham. 2 July 2025. Archived from the original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 2 July 2025.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g "Labor leads in Tasmania as health and housing dominate voter concerns:". YouGov Australia. 30 June 2025. Archived from the original on 10 July 2025. Retrieved 30 June 2025.
  19. ^ a b c d e f Holmes, Adam (1 July 2025). "YouGov poll has Labor ahead of Liberals in Tasmania but well short of majority". ABC News. Archived from the original on 2 July 2025. Retrieved 2 July 2025.
  20. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 20 May 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  21. ^ "Liberal vote falls to lowest since 2009 amid Stadium debate" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 20 May 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  22. ^ a b Abey, Duncan (20 May 2025). "Tasmanian poll shock: Labor takes lead as Liberal support drops below 30 per cent". The Mercury. Archived from the original on 20 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  23. ^ Bowe, William (20 May 2025). "Tasmania: EMRS poll and Legislative Council elections". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 25 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  24. ^ a b c "PARTIES TREAD WATER" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 21 February 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 April 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  25. ^ a b c "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 21 February 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 April 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  26. ^ a b c d e f "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. November 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  27. ^ "EMRS poll: State budget labelled 'irresponsible' and 'poor' by Tasmanians". Pulse Tasmania. 15 October 2024. Archived from the original on 16 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  28. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). Wolf & Smith. August 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  29. ^ Bowe, William (8 September 2024). "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 19 March 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  30. ^ "Winter Tanks in First EMRS Poll". Tasmanian Times. 29 May 2024. Archived from the original on 25 March 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
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