Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

2025

Date Brand Interview
mode 		Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote[a]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH UND ALP L/NP
11–15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] Telephone/Online 1,800 37% 29% 12% 9% 8% 6% — 59% 41%
18–30 Jul 2025 Wolf & Smith[2][3] — 5,000 36% 30% — — — — — 57% 43%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[4] Online 5,159 36.5% 31% 12% 7% — 13.5% — 57% 43%
13–18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5] Telephone/Online 2,311 35% 29% 12% 8% 8% 8% — 56% 44%
14–17 Jul 2025 Newspoll[6][7] Online 1,264 36% 29% 12% 8% — 15% — 57% 43%
5–6 Jul 2025 DemosAU[8] Online 1,199 36% 26% 14% 9% — 15% — 59% 41%
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025 Spectre Strategy[9] Online 1,001 35.9% 31% 12.8% 7.9% — 12.3% — 56.5% 43.5%
Late June 2025[b] Redbridge[10] Online 4,036 37% 31% 11% — — — — 55.5% 44.5%
23–29 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[11] Online 1,522 36.5% 30.5% 12% 8.5% — 12.5% — 57.5% 42.5%
2–22 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[12] Online 3,957 37.5% 31% 12% 6% — 13.5% — 58% 42%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] Online 5,128 37% 31% 11.5% 6% — 14.5% — 58.5% 41.5%
20–28 May 2025 The Liberal–National Coalition is temporarily dissolved
13 May 2025 Sussan Ley elected as Leader of the Liberal Party and the Opposition, replacing Peter Dutton
3 May 2025 Election[14] 34.6% 31.8% 12.2% 6.4% 7.4% 7.6% — 55.2% 44.8%

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

2025

Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Ley
Albanese Ley Don't know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Net
18–30 Jul 2025 Wolf & Smith[2][3] — 5,000 45% 35% 20% +10% — — — — — — — —
24 – 29 July 2025 Essential[15] Online 1,012 — — — — 50% 41% 9% +9% 33% 35% 33% -2%
13 – 18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5] Telephone/Online 2,311 40% 25% 35% +15% 45% 42% 13% +3% 38% 29% 33% +7%
14 – 17 Jul 2025 Newspoll[6][7] Online 1,264 52% 32% 16% +20% 47% 47% 6% 0% 35% 42% 23% –7%
4 – 10 Jul 2025 Morning Consult[16] Online 3,770 — — — — 54% 35% 11% +19% — — — —
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025 Spectre Strategy[9] Online 1,001 46% 27% 27% +19% — — — — — — — —
3 – 9 Jun 2025 Morning Consult[16] Online 3,770 — — — — 53% 36% 11% +17% — — — —
7 – 11 May 2025 Essential[17] Online 1,137 — — — — 50% 39% 11% +11% — — — —
2 – 8 May 2025 Morning Consult[16] Online 3,770 — — — — 57% 33% 9% +24% — — — —

National direction polling

Individual polls

Date Firm Right direction Wrong direction Can't say Lead
24 – 29 July 2025 Essential[15] 38% 45% 17% –7%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 37% 46.5% 16.5% –9.5%
23 Jun – 29 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[11] 38.5% 46% 15.5% –7.5%
2 Jun – 22 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[12] 43% 41.5% 15.5% +1.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[18] 41% 44% 15% –3%
7 – 11 May 2025 Essential[19] 37% 42% 21% –5%

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote[c]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] 1,800 37% 29% 13% 12% 7% 3% — —
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 56.5% 43.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5][d] 2,311 36% 31% 11% 8% 7% 6% 55% 44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 59% 41%
3 May 2025 Election[14] 35.2% 31.5% 11.1% 6.0% 9.7% 6.5% 55.3% 44.7%

Victoria

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote[e]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] 1,800 36% 30% 12% 6% 7% 8% — —
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 57.5% 42.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5][f] 2,311 38% 28% 13% 8% 6% 8% 60% 41%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 59.5% 40.5%
3 May 2025 Election[14] 34.0% 32.2% 13.6% 5.8% 7.6% 6.8% 56.3% 43.7%

Queensland

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote[g]
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] 1,800 29% 39% 10% 9% 8% 5% — —
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 46.5% 53.5%
13 – 18 July 2025 Resolve[5][h] 2,311 31% 31% 11% 10% 8% 8% 48% 51%
4 July – 9 July 2025 DemosAU[20][21] 1,027 35% 31% 12% 13% — 9% 47% 53%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 47.5% 52.5%
3 May 2025 Election[14] 34.9% 31.0% 11.8% 7.8% 3.8% 10.7% 50.6% 49.4%

Western Australia

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 54.5% 45.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 58.5% 41.5%
3 May 2025 Election[14] 35.6% 31.5% 12.0% 7.6% 6.2% 7.1% 55.8% 44.2%

South Australia

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 62% 38%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 58.5% 41.5%
3 May 2025 Election[14] 38.3% 28.0% 13.4% 6.2% 3.4% 10.7% 59.2% 40.8%

Tasmania

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 61% 39%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 70.5% 29.5%
3 May 2025 Election[14] 36.6% 24.5% 11.1% 6.1% 18.1% 3.6% 63.3% 36.7%

ACT

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 Election[14] 47.5% 21.2% 15.1% 12.8% 3.4% 72.5% 27.5%

Northern Territory

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
3 May 2025 Election[14] 37.9% 33.8% 10.2% 7.7% 7.7% 2.5% 54.3% 45.7%


Individual seat polling

Bradfield

Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH LIB IND
Jun 2025 uComms[i][22] 1,147 — 37.3% 33.0% — — — — — —
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.0% 27.0% 20.3% 6.7% 1.6% 6.4% 49.99% 50.01%

Subpopulation results

By gender

Women

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[j]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] 1,800 38% 25% 13% 9% 8% 6% — —
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 59.5% 40.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5][f] 2,311 36% 27% 14% 7% 9% 8% 59.5% 41.5%
5 – 6 Jul 2025 DemosAU[8] 1,199 36% 25% 15% 15% — 10% 60% 40%
Late June 2025 Redbridge[23] 4,036 36% 30% 13% — — — 56% 44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 61% 39%

Men

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[j]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] 1,800 36% 32% 10% 10% 7% 5% — —
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 54.5% 45.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5][f] 2,311 34% 31% 11% 9% 8% 8% 55% 46%
5 – 6 Jul 2025 DemosAU[8] 1,199 36% 28% 12% 9% — 15% 57% 43%
Late June 2025 Redbridge[24] 4,036 39% 32% 8% — — — 54% 46%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 55.5% 44.5%

By age

18–34

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025 Resolve[1] 1,800 39% 24% 22% 6% 8% 2% — —
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[4] 5,159 — — — — — — 69% 31%
13 – 18 Jul 2025 Resolve[5] 2,311 37% 18% 28% 5% 6% 6% — —
5 – 6 Jul 2025 DemosAU[8] 1,199 39% 16% 31% 4% — 10% 73% 27%
Late June 2025 Redbridge[25] 4,036 40% 19% 24% — — — 68% 32%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 70% 30%

35–49

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 58% 42%
Late June 2025 Redbridge[26] 4,036 37% 25% 11% — — — 57% 43%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 62.5% 37.5%

50–64

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,159 — — — — — — 53% 47%
Late June 2025 Redbridge[27] 4,036 37% 34% 5% — — — 50% 50%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 53% 47%

65+

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 48% 52%
Late June 2025 Redbridge[28] 4,036 36% 44% 2% — — — 45% 55%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan[13] 5,128 — — — — — — 48.5% 51.5%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election by The Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.
  2. ^ Exact fieldwork dates were not specified.
  3. ^ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in New South Wales.
  4. ^ Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
  5. ^ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in Victoria.
  6. ^ a b c Primary and 2PP vote sum is greater than 100 due to rounding.
  7. ^ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in Queensland.
  8. ^ Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
  9. ^ Commissioned by Climate 200.
  10. ^ a b Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election.

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Wright, Shane (17 August 2025). "Albanese won 94 seats at the election. Now voters want to give him even more". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 17 August 2025. Retrieved 17 August 2025.
  2. ^ a b Coorey, Phillip (5 August 2025). "Voters baulk at expanding GST to fund tax cuts". Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 5 August 2025. Retrieved 6 August 2025.
  3. ^ a b Bowe, William (7 August 2025). "Wolf + Smith: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 7 August 2025. Retrieved 6 August 2025.
  4. ^ a b "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in July: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%". Roy Morgan Research. 28 July 2025. Archived from the original on 28 July 2025. Retrieved 28 July 2025.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Wright, Shane (20 July 2025). "The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  6. ^ a b Benson, Simon (20 July 2025). "Newspoll: Coalition vote collapses as Labor snags a second honeymoon". The Australian. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  7. ^ a b Tan, Sebastian; Brown, Andrew (21 July 2025). "'Honeymoon effect': Labor extends lead in latest poll". Yahoo! News. Australian Associated Press. Archived from the original on 22 July 2025. Retrieved 22 July 2025.
  8. ^ a b c d "DemosAU Report: Federal Voting Intention July 05-06 2025" (PDF). DemosAU. 9 July 2025. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  9. ^ a b "Australian Federal Polling Update - July 2025". Spectre Strategy. 8 July 2025. Retrieved 8 July 2025.
  10. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  11. ^ a b "Albanese Government retains strong two-party preferred lead after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 June 2025.
  12. ^ a b "Federal voting intention before US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites showed the ALP retained a strong two-party preferred lead: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%". Roy Morgan. 24 June 2025.
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y "Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys third honeymoon as ALP strengthens two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%". Roy Morgan. 3 June 2025.
  14. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Party Totals". abc.net.au. 3 May 2025. Retrieved 4 June 2025.
  15. ^ a b "The Essential Report: 30 July 2025". 30 July 2025. Retrieved 2 August 2025.
  16. ^ a b c "Global Leader Approval Rating Tracker | Morning Consult". Morning Consult Pro. Retrieved 18 May 2025.
  17. ^ "Political Insights". essentialreport.com.au. Retrieved 14 May 2025.
  18. ^ "Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys third honeymoon as ALP strengthens two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5% - Roy Morgan Research". www.roymorgan.com. Retrieved 3 June 2025.
  19. ^ "Political Insights". essentialreport.com.au. Retrieved 3 June 2025.
  20. ^ "Queensland State and Federal Voting Intention July 04-09 2025". DemosAU. 10 July 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
  21. ^ "Crisafulli and Albanese enjoy honeymoon periods". DemosAU. 14 July 2025. Archived from the original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
  22. ^ Smith, Alexandra (1 July 2025). "NSW Liberals push Greiner to fund Bradfield court challenge after 26-vote loss". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 22 July 2025. Retrieved 22 July 2025.
  23. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  24. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  25. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  26. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  27. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  28. ^ Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
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