In financial mathematics, tail value at risk (TVaR), also known as tail conditional expectation (TCE) or conditional tail expectation (CTE), is a risk measure associated with the more general value at risk. It quantifies the expected value of the loss given that an event outside a given probability level has occurred. 
  Background
 There are a number of related, but subtly different, formulations for TVaR in the literature. A common case in literature is to define TVaR and average value at risk as the same measure.[1]  Under some formulations, it is only equivalent to expected shortfall when the underlying distribution function is continuous at  , the value at risk of level
, the value at risk of level  .[2] Under some other settings, TVaR is the conditional expectation of loss above a given value, whereas the expected shortfall is the product of this value with the probability of it occurring.[3] The former definition may not be a coherent risk measure in general, however it is coherent if the underlying distribution is continuous.[4] The latter definition is a coherent risk measure.[3] TVaR accounts for the severity of the failure, not only the chance of failure.  The TVaR is a measure of the expectation only in the tail of the distribution.
.[2] Under some other settings, TVaR is the conditional expectation of loss above a given value, whereas the expected shortfall is the product of this value with the probability of it occurring.[3] The former definition may not be a coherent risk measure in general, however it is coherent if the underlying distribution is continuous.[4] The latter definition is a coherent risk measure.[3] TVaR accounts for the severity of the failure, not only the chance of failure.  The TVaR is a measure of the expectation only in the tail of the distribution. 
 Mathematical definition
 The canonical tail value at risk is the left-tail (large negative values) in some disciplines and the right-tail (large positive values) in other, such as actuarial science. This is usually due to the differing conventions of treating losses as large negative or positive values. Using the negative value convention, Artzner and others define the tail value at risk as: 
Given a random variable  which is the payoff of a portfolio at some future time and given a parameter
 which is the payoff of a portfolio at some future time and given a parameter  then the tail value at risk is defined by[5][6][7][8]
 then the tail value at risk is defined by[5][6][7][8] ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=\operatorname {E} [-X|X\leq -\operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)]=\operatorname {E} [-X|X\leq x^{\alpha }],}](./_assets_/9a43fcb4528aea744af04aaa030d657a563acd40.svg) where
 where  is the upper
 is the upper  -quantile given by
-quantile given by  . Typically the payoff random variable
. Typically the payoff random variable  is in some Lp-space where
 is in some Lp-space where  to guarantee the existence of the expectation. The typical values for
 to guarantee the existence of the expectation. The typical values for  are 5% and 1%.
 are 5% and 1%. 
  Closed-form formulas exist for calculating TVaR when the payoff of a portfolio  or a corresponding loss
 or a corresponding loss  follows a specific continuous distribution. If
 follows a specific continuous distribution. If  follows some probability distribution with the probability density function (p.d.f.)
 follows some probability distribution with the probability density function (p.d.f.)  and the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.)
 and the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.)  , the left-tail TVaR can be represented as
, the left-tail TVaR can be represented as 
![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=\operatorname {E} [-X|X\leq -\operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)]={\frac {1}{\alpha }}\int _{0}^{\alpha }\operatorname {VaR} _{\gamma }(X)d\gamma =-{\frac {1}{\alpha }}\int _{-\infty }^{F^{-1}(\alpha )}xf(x)dx.}](./_assets_/d3e6d9c8a3e3b510a5d9adb51f9264dde7c85aff.svg) 
 
For engineering or actuarial applications it is more common to consider the distribution of losses  , in this case the right-tail TVaR is considered (typically for
, in this case the right-tail TVaR is considered (typically for  95% or 99%):
 95% or 99%): 
![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)=E[L\mid L\geq \operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(L)]={\frac {1}{1-\alpha }}\int _{\alpha }^{1}\operatorname {VaR} _{\gamma }(L)d\gamma ={\frac {1}{1-\alpha }}\int _{F^{-1}(\alpha )}^{+\infty }yf(y)dy.}](./_assets_/c8d3774b7a9f257831d7f5300bf1c48a2cf4b080.svg) 
 
Since some formulas below were derived for the left-tail case and some for the right-tail case, the following reconciliations can be useful: 
![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-{\frac {1}{\alpha }}E[X]+{\frac {1-\alpha }{\alpha }}\operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)}](./_assets_/de7a471e4919224cdc3763794311921bba0bc5a3.svg) and
 and ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {1}{1-\alpha }}E[L]+{\frac {\alpha }{1-\alpha }}\operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X).}](./_assets_/0a93f0efe67c4d8a2a1cc1149639d88e74609975.svg) 
 
 Normal distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows normal (Gaussian) distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows normal (Gaussian) distribution with the p.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the standard normal p.d.f.,
 is the standard normal p.d.f.,  is the standard normal c.d.f., so
 is the standard normal c.d.f., so  is the standard normal quantile.[9]
 is the standard normal quantile.[9] 
If the loss of a portfolio  follows normal distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]
 follows normal distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]  
 
 Generalized Student's t-distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows generalized Student's t-distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows generalized Student's t-distribution with the p.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the standard t-distribution p.d.f.,
 is the standard t-distribution p.d.f.,  is the standard t-distribution c.d.f., so
 is the standard t-distribution c.d.f., so  is the standard t-distribution quantile.[9]
 is the standard t-distribution quantile.[9] 
If the loss of a portfolio  follows generalized Student's t-distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]
 follows generalized Student's t-distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]  
 
 Laplace distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows Laplace distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows Laplace distribution with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to  for
 for  .[9]
.[9] 
If the loss of a portfolio  follows Laplace distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]
 follows Laplace distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\begin{cases}\mu +b{\frac {\alpha }{1-\alpha }}(1-\ln 2\alpha )&{\text{if }}\alpha <0.5,\\[1ex]\mu +b[1-\ln(2(1-\alpha ))]&{\text{if }}\alpha \geq 0.5.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/df7f8d3ea5a8899943ef203ab9f40a39596509d9.svg) 
 
 Logistic distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows logistic distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows logistic distribution with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to[9]
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to[9]  
 
If the loss of a portfolio  follows logistic distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]
 follows logistic distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]  
 
 Exponential distribution
 If the loss of a portfolio  follows exponential distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows exponential distribution with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]
 then the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]  
 
 Pareto distribution
 If the loss of a portfolio  follows Pareto distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows Pareto distribution with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]
 then the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10]  
 
 Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)
 If the loss of a portfolio  follows GPD with the p.d.f.
 follows GPD with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the right-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the right-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\begin{cases}\mu +s\left[{\frac {(1-\alpha )^{-\xi }}{1-\xi }}+{\frac {(1-\alpha )^{-\xi }-1}{\xi }}\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\\mu +s[1-\ln(1-\alpha )]&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/f3a894b6b5376329ea2ca49da9edc1c7c234c186.svg) and the VaR is equal to[10]
 and the VaR is equal to[10]  
 
 Weibull distribution
 If the loss of a portfolio  follows Weibull distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows Weibull distribution with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the right-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the right-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the upper incomplete gamma function.[10]
 is the upper incomplete gamma function.[10] 
 Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows GEV with the p.d.f.
 follows GEV with the p.d.f. ![{\displaystyle f(x)={\begin{cases}{\frac {1}{\sigma }}\left(1+\xi {\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)^{-{\frac {1}{\xi }}-1}\exp \left[-\left(1+\xi {\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)^{-{\frac {1}{\xi }}}\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\{\frac {1}{\sigma }}e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}}e^{-e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}}}&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/c1a4eac28fd0632a6fd9c43588a8114bdf12a21a.svg) and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}-\mu -{\frac {\sigma }{\alpha \xi }}\left[\Gamma (1-\xi ,-\ln \alpha )-\alpha \right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\-\mu -{\frac {\sigma }{\alpha }}\left[{\text{li}}(\alpha )-\alpha \ln(-\ln \alpha )\right]&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/03ba1e026623af5b362ab542eb878371c115dfb6.svg) and the VaR is equal to
 and the VaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \mathrm {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}-\mu -{\frac {\sigma }{\xi }}\left[(-\ln \alpha )^{-\xi }-1\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\-\mu +\sigma \ln(-\ln \alpha )&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/d4479fb4d2d3d6506966f59e19afbc85aecc2ed3.svg) where
 where  is the upper incomplete gamma function,
 is the upper incomplete gamma function,  is the logarithmic integral function.[11]
 is the logarithmic integral function.[11] 
If the loss of a portfolio  follows GEV, then the right-tail TVaR is equal to
 follows GEV, then the right-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}\mu +{\frac {\sigma }{(1-\alpha )\xi }}\left[\gamma (1-\xi ,-\ln \alpha )-(1-\alpha )\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\\mu +{\frac {\sigma }{1-\alpha }}\left[y-{\text{li}}(\alpha )+\alpha \ln(-\ln \alpha )\right]&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/dafd40746a0f814530903195725c9c98ea41b8d6.svg) where
 where  is the lower incomplete gamma function,
 is the lower incomplete gamma function,  is the Euler-Mascheroni constant.[10]
 is the Euler-Mascheroni constant.[10] 
 Generalized hyperbolic secant (GHS) distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows GHS distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows GHS distribution with the p.d.f.  and the c.d.f.
and the c.d.f. ![{\displaystyle F(x)={\frac {2}{\pi }}\arctan \left[\exp \left({\frac {\pi }{2}}{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)\right]}](./_assets_/40e0860eb7b66ecfc89b2e501511351c1615ffc5.svg) then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\mu -{\frac {2\sigma }{\pi }}\ln \left(\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)-{\frac {2\sigma }{\pi ^{2}\alpha }}i\left[{\text{Li}}_{2}\left(-i\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)-{\text{Li}}_{2}\left(i\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)\right],}](./_assets_/4c67ad5a97e6a4815d1f64c3c970e645880ade89.svg) where
 where  is the dilogarithm and
 is the dilogarithm and  is the imaginary unit.[11]
 is the imaginary unit.[11] 
 Johnson's SU-distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows Johnson's SU-distribution with the c.d.f.
 follows Johnson's SU-distribution with the c.d.f. ![{\displaystyle F(x)=\Phi \left[\gamma +\delta \sinh ^{-1}\left({\frac {x-\xi }{\lambda }}\right)\right]}](./_assets_/bc71f4b7428dc370287f5ef90249a0bd2eb86b75.svg) then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\xi -{\frac {\lambda }{2\alpha }}\left[\exp \left({\frac {1-2\gamma \delta }{2\delta ^{2}}}\right)\Phi \left(\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )-{\frac {1}{\delta }}\right)-\exp \left({\frac {1+2\gamma \delta }{2\delta ^{2}}}\right)\Phi \left(\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )+{\frac {1}{\delta }}\right)\right],}](./_assets_/1318e4f0607985725151f0436d6a5866e694b22c.svg) where
 where  is the c.d.f. of the standard normal distribution.[12]
 is the c.d.f. of the standard normal distribution.[12] 
 Burr type XII distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows the Burr type XII distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows the Burr type XII distribution with the p.d.f. ![{\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {ck}{\beta }}\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c-1}\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c}\right]^{-k-1}}](./_assets_/016c07ff59be5fcb9e0118727745b0a82f5883ea.svg) and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f. ![{\displaystyle F(x)=1-\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c}\right]^{-k},}](./_assets_/323ba3a02ce1517536bc1ce013524e23407a56d7.svg) the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 the left-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\gamma -{\frac {\beta }{\alpha }}\left((1-\alpha )^{-1/k}-1\right)^{1/c}\left[\alpha -1+{_{2}F_{1}}\left({\frac {1}{c}},k;1+{\frac {1}{c}};1-(1-\alpha )^{-1/k}\right)\right],}](./_assets_/120641cc383267e0c340c0b8b0f6e722bdbc3a70.svg) where
 where  is the hypergeometric function. Alternatively,[11]
 is the hypergeometric function. Alternatively,[11]  
 
 Dagum distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows the Dagum distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows the Dagum distribution with the p.d.f. ![{\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {ck}{\beta }}\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{ck-1}\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c}\right]^{-k-1}}](./_assets_/2156ace29c273bacd1a301ff8dea896df993e187.svg) and the c.d.f.
 and the c.d.f. ![{\displaystyle F(x)=\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{-c}\right]^{-k},}](./_assets_/fef070ee4797e72934558a34be0e6285f780f8ce.svg) the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 the left-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the hypergeometric function.[11]
 is the hypergeometric function.[11] 
 Lognormal distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows lognormal distribution, i.e. the random variable
 follows lognormal distribution, i.e. the random variable  follows normal distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows normal distribution with the p.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the standard normal c.d.f., so
 is the standard normal c.d.f., so  is the standard normal quantile.[13]
 is the standard normal quantile.[13] 
 Log-logistic distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows log-logistic distribution, i.e. the random variable
 follows log-logistic distribution, i.e. the random variable  follows logistic distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows logistic distribution with the p.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the regularized incomplete beta function,
 is the regularized incomplete beta function,  .
. 
As the incomplete beta function is defined only for positive arguments, for a more generic case the left-tail TVaR can be expressed with the hypergeometric function:[13]  
 
If the loss of a portfolio  follows log-logistic distribution with p.d.f.
 follows log-logistic distribution with p.d.f.  and c.d.f.
 and c.d.f.  then the right-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the right-tail TVaR is equal to ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {a}{1-\alpha }}\left[{\frac {\pi }{b}}\csc \left({\frac {\pi }{b}}\right)-\mathrm {B} _{\alpha }\left({\frac {1}{b}}+1,1-{\frac {1}{b}}\right)\right],}](./_assets_/9e411859f53ed0a0fd04333fdff824e73d463cef.svg) where
 where  is the incomplete beta function.[10]
 is the incomplete beta function.[10] 
 Log-Laplace distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows log-Laplace distribution, i.e. the random variable
 follows log-Laplace distribution, i.e. the random variable  follows Laplace distribution the p.d.f.
 follows Laplace distribution the p.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to[13]
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to[13] ![{\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}1-{\frac {e^{\mu }(2\alpha )^{b}}{b+1}}&{\text{if }}\alpha \leq 0.5,\\1-{\frac {e^{\mu }2^{-b}}{\alpha (b-1)}}\left[(1-\alpha )^{(1-b)}-1\right]&{\text{if }}\alpha >0.5.\end{cases}}}](./_assets_/9751a0addc86d25411ef6ad06732717067950d15.svg) 
 
 Log-generalized hyperbolic secant (log-GHS) distribution
 If the payoff of a portfolio  follows log-GHS distribution, i.e. the random variable
 follows log-GHS distribution, i.e. the random variable  follows GHS distribution with the p.d.f.
 follows GHS distribution with the p.d.f.  then the left-tail TVaR is equal to
 then the left-tail TVaR is equal to  where
 where  is the hypergeometric function.[13]
 is the hypergeometric function.[13] 
 References
   - ^ Bargès; Cossette, Marceau (2009). "TVaR-based capital allocation with copulas". Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 45 (3): 348–361. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.366.9837. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2009.08.002. 
- ^ "Average Value at Risk" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 19, 2011. Retrieved February 2, 2011. 
- ^ a b Sweeting, Paul (2011). "15.4 Risk Measures". Financial Enterprise Risk Management. International Series on Actuarial Science. Cambridge University Press. pp. 397–401. ISBN 978-0-521-11164-5. LCCN 2011025050. 
- ^ Acerbi, Carlo; Tasche, Dirk (2002). "On the coherence of Expected Shortfall". Journal of Banking and Finance. 26 (7): 1487–1503. arXiv:cond-mat/0104295. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2. S2CID 511156. 
- ^ Artzner, Philippe; Delbaen, Freddy; Eber, Jean-Marc; Heath, David (1999). "Coherent Measures of Risk" (PDF). Mathematical Finance. 9 (3): 203–228. doi:10.1111/1467-9965.00068. S2CID 6770585. Retrieved February 3, 2011. 
- ^ Landsman, Zinoviy; Valdez, Emiliano (February 2004). "Tail Conditional Expectations for Exponential Dispersion Models" (PDF). Retrieved February 3, 2011.  
- ^ Landsman, Zinoviy; Makov, Udi; Shushi, Tomer (July 2013). "Tail Conditional Expectations for Generalized Skew - Elliptical distributions". doi:10.2139/ssrn.2298265. S2CID 117342853. SSRN 2298265.  
- ^ Valdez, Emiliano (May 2004). "The Iterated Tail Conditional Expectation for the Log-Elliptical Loss Process" (PDF). Retrieved February 3, 2010.  
- ^ a b c d Khokhlov, Valentyn (2016). "Conditional Value-at-Risk for Elliptical Distributions". Evropský časopis Ekonomiky a Managementu. 2 (6): 70–79. 
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Norton, Matthew; Khokhlov, Valentyn; Uryasev, Stan (2018-11-27). "Calculating CVaR and bPOE for Common Probability Distributions With Application to Portfolio Optimization and Density Estimation". arXiv:1811.11301 [q-fin.RM]. 
- ^ a b c d Khokhlov, Valentyn (2018-06-21). "Conditional Value-at-Risk for Uncommon Distributions". SSRN. SSRN 3200629. 
- ^ Stucchi, Patrizia (2011-05-31). "Moment-Based CVaR Estimation: Quasi-Closed Formulas". SSRN. SSRN 1855986. 
- ^ a b c d Khokhlov, Valentyn (2018-06-17). "Conditional Value-at-Risk for Log-Distributions". SSRN. SSRN 3197929.