Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

Polling

  Exit poll

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Rebelo de Sousa
Cândido Ferreira
Jorge Sequeira
 Oth/
Und 		Lead
PSD, CDS Ind. Ind. Ind. PCP BE Ind. Ind. Ind. Ind.
Election results 24 Jan 2016 48.7 52.0 4.2 22.9 0.8 3.9 10.1 2.2 0.2 3.2 0.3 — 29.1
UCP–CESOP 24 Jan 2016 31,018 49–54 3–5 22–25 0–2 3–5 9–11 1–3 0–1 2–4 0–1
—
 27–
29
Eurosondagem 24 Jan 2016 43,678 50.1–54.9 3.3–4.8 21.1–24.8 0.7–1.4 3.0–4.1 8.8–11.3 1.4–2.5 0.3–0.7 2.6–3.7 0.3–0.7
—
 29.0–
30.1
Intercampus 24 Jan 2016 15,481 50.9–55.7 2.9–5.9 19.3–23.3
—
 1.9–4.9 8.8–12.4
—
—
—
—
 5.5–8.5 31.6–
32.4
Aximage 16–20 Jan 2016 1,301 51.5 9.0 22.6 0.8 5.2 6.6 2.3 0.1 1.8 0.1 — 28.9
Intercampus 14–20 Jan 2016 1,043 51.8 10.1 16.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 2.9 0.5 2.5 0.6 — 34.9
Eurosondagem 14–19 Jan 2016 2,025 55.0 13.3 19.0 1.1 3.7 5.3 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 — 36.0
UCP–CESOP 16–17 Jan 2016 3,340 52 8 22 1 3 8 3 0.5 2 0.5 — 30
Consulmark2 11–14 Jan 2016 1,004 53.0 10.5 23.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 3.8 0.1 1.5 0.3 — 29.6
Eurosondagem 7–13 Jan 2016 1,516 54.8 16.3 16.8 1.1 4.0 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 — 29.6
Aximage 2–5 Jan 2016 602 52.9 11.8 16.9 1.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 — — — 8.8 36.0
Eurosondagem 16–21 Dec 2015 1,515 52.5 18.1 16.9 1.3 4.7 4.8 1.7 — — — — 34.4
UCP–CESOP 5–6 Dec 2015 1,183 62 14 15 1 3 3 1 — — — 1 47
Aximage 28 Nov–2 Dec 2015 605 54.6 13.4 13.2 0.4 1.9 2.4 1.1 — — — 13.0 41.2
Eurosondagem 13–18 Nov 2015 1,510 48.0 18.9 16.7 2.2 5.2 6.9 1.1 — — — 1.0 29.1
Aximage 31 Oct–4 Nov 2015 603 56.9 13.1 15.3 — 2.1 — — — — — 12.9 41.6
Aximage 26 Sep–1 Oct 2015 1,387 29.7 14.7 13.0 1.1 10.3
(JS) 		— — — — — 31.2[1] 8.2
Intercampus 23–30 Sep 2015 1,013 49.3 17.0 10.1 1.4 — — — — — — 22.2[2] 32.3

Second round

Hypothetical polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
PSD PSD PSD PSD PS PS Ind. Ind. PS PS
Intercampus 14–20 Jan 2016 1,043 68.4 — — — — — — — 31.6 —
67.0 — — — — — — 33.0 — —
Eurosondagem 14–19 Jan 2016 2,025 65.2 — — — — — — — 34.8 —
64.8 — — — — — — 35.2 — —
Eurosondagem 7–13 Jan 2016 1,516 63.7 — — — — — — — 36.3 —
63.0 — — — — — — 37.0 — —
Eurosondagem 16–21 Dec 2015 1,515 62.5 — — — — — — — 37.5 —
62.1 — — — — — — 37.9 — —
UCP–CESOP 5–6 Dec 2015 1,183 57 — — — — — — — 17 —
57 — — — — — — 17 — —
Aximage 4–8 Feb 2015 608 65.9 — — — — — — — 34.1 —
65.7 — — — — — — — — 34.3
62.8 — — — — 37.2 — — — —
— 59.6 — — — — — — 40.4 —
— 67.7 — — — — — — — 32.3
— 54.8 — — — 45.2 — — — —
— — 24.9 — — 75.1 — — — —
— — 35.2 — — — — — 64.8 —
— — 34.9 — — — — — — 65.1
Eurosondagem 8–14 Jan 2015 1,010 47.5 — — — 52.5 — — — — —
— 45.9 — — 54.1 — — — — —
— — 44.8 — 55.2 — — — — —
48.0 — — — — 52.0 — — — —
— 46.1 — — — 53.9 — — — —
— — 43.4 — — 56.6 — — — —
61.1 — — — — — — 38.9 — —
— 56.5 — — — — — 43.5 — —
— — 58.3 — — — — 41.7 — —
Eurosondagem 17–21 Nov 2014 1,033 — — — 39.7 60.3 — — — — —
47.4 — — — 52.6 — — — — —
— — 41.3 — 58.7 — — — — —
— 44.2 — — 55.8 — — — — —
— — — 40.7 — 59.3 — — — —
48.2 — — — — 51.8 — — — —
— — 44.5 — — 55.5 — — — —
— 47.5 — — — 52.5 — — — —
— — — 55.2 — — 44.8 — — —
64.9 — — — — — 35.1 — — —
— — 58.0 — — — 42.0 — — —
— 64.8 — — — — 35.2 — — —
— — — 69.5 — — — 30.5 — —
70.2 — — — — — — 29.8 — —
— — 65.1 — — — — 34.9 — —
— 70.6 — — — — — 29.4 — —

Leadership polls

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Oth/
Und 		Lead
PSD PSD PSD PSD CDS PSD PSD PSD PSD Ind.
Aximage 12–16 Jul 2015 607 46.2 36.7 — 6.5 — — — — — — 10.6 9.5
Eurosondagem 2–7 Jul 2015 1,025 29.6 24.8 16.9 — — — — — — 2.0 26.7 4.8
Aximage[3] 3–6 Mar 2015 600 49.8 35.7 5.6 — — — — — 7.0 — 1.9 14.1
Aximage[4] 39.7 40.2 4.8 — — — — — 8.6 — 6.7 0.5
Aximage 6–9 Dec 2013 609 44.2 32.3 4.2 8.2 — — — 4.3 — — 6.8 11.9
Eurosondagem 30 Oct–5 Nov 2013 1,005 29.3 26.4 13.3 6.9 4.8 2.5 2.1 — — — 14.7 2.9
Aximage 5–7 Mar 2012 600 40.0 — 9.3 22.9 — — — 8.3 — — 19.5 17.1

Centre-Left/Left

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Oth/
Und 		Lead
PS PS PS PS Ind. PS Ind. PS PS Ind. PS
Aximage 12–16 Jul 2015 607 — — — — — — 25.9 32.4 — 18.1 — 23.7 6.5
Eurosondagem 2–7 Jul 2015 1,025 — — — — — — 33.3 25.0 — — 4.8 36.9 8.3
Aximage[5] 3–6 Mar 2015 600 — — — 39.5 20.0 — — 25.7 8.8 — — 6.0 13.8
Aximage[4] — — — 42.4 10.7 — — 21.1 13.4 — — 12.4 21.3
Aximage 6–9 Dec 2013 609 43.8 27.3 — — 6.3 — 3.1 10.4 — — — 9.1 16.5
Eurosondagem 30 Oct–5 Nov 2013 1,005 26.6 20.9 13.7 10.0 6.5 3.3 2.2 — — — — 16.8 5.7
Aximage 5–7 Mar 2012 600 33.1 25.4 — — 10.3 — — 15.0 — — — 16.2 7.7

Approval ratings

The table below lists the evolution of public opinion on the president's performance in office.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Aníbal Cavaco Silva
Approve Disapprove No opinion Net
Eurosondagem 3–9 Mar 2016 1,005 26.7 40.8 32.5 14.1
Eurosondagem 4–10 Feb 2016 1,010 26.8 40.0 33.2 13.2
Aximage 30–31 Jan 2016 606 24.8 60.9 14.3 36.1
Eurosondagem 1–6 Jan 2016 1,016 26.5 39.4 34.1 12.9
Aximage 2–5 Jan 2016 602 26.5 57.2 16.3 30.7
Eurosondagem 3–9 Dec 2015 1,015 26.3 36.2 37.5 9.9
UCP–CESOP 5–6 Dec 2015 1,183 48 52 — 4
Aximage 28 Nov–2 Dec 2015 605 27.0 63.4 9.6 36.4
Eurosondagem 29 Oct–3 Nov 2015 1,036 29.9 35.6 34.5 5.7
Aximage 4–7 Sep 2015 602 24.1 59.3 16.6 35.2
Eurosondagem 27 Aug–2 Sep 2015 1,040 30.9 32.0 37.1 1.1
Eurosondagem 29 Jul–4 Aug 2015 1,030 31.6 33.8 34.6 2.2
Aximage 12–16 Jul 2015 607 25.6 61.5 12.9 35.9
Eurosondagem 2–7 Jul 2015 1,025 31.3 34.4 34.3 3.1
UCP–CESOP 13–16 Jun 2015 1,048 46 54 — 8
Eurosondagem 4–9 Jun 2015 1,030 30.1 35.6 34.3 5.5
Aximage 31 May–4 Jun 2015 598 24.0 63.8 12.2 39.8
Eurosondagem 7–12 May 2015 1,021 29.4 35.9 34.7 6.5
Aximage 7–10 May 2015 605 23.0 65.3 11.7 42.3
Eurosondagem 9–15 Apr 2015 1,025 28.5 36.0 34.5 7.5
Aximage 4–8 Apr 2015 602 20.1 67.4 12.5 47.3
Eurosondagem 5–10 Mar 2015 1,005 29.9 36.1 34.0 6.2
Aximage 3–6 Mar 2015 600 23.1 64.4 12.5 41.3
Eurosondagem 5–11 Feb 2015 1,015 31.6 32.8 35.6 1.2
Aximage 4–8 Feb 2015 608 25.5 62.1 12.4 36.6
Eurosondagem 8–14 Jan 2015 1,010 32.2 33.0 34.8 0.8
Aximage 9–12 Jan 2015 601 28.2 59.8 12.0 31.6
Eurosondagem 4–10 Dec 2014 1,036 33.6 31.9 34.5 1.7
Aximage 1–4 Dec 2014 607 28.0 61.7 10.3 33.7
Eurosondagem 6–11 Nov 2014 1,022 34.1 31.4 34.5 2.7
Aximage 7–10 Nov 2014 603 29.6 61.1 9.3 31.5
UCP–CESOP 11–13 Oct 2014 1,064 46 54 — 8
Eurosondagem 2–7 Oct 2014 1,021 35.6 30.4 34.0 5.2
Aximage 1–4 Oct 2014 609 33.3 57.5 9.2 24.2
Eurosondagem 4–9 Sep 2014 1,011 36.5 29.7 33.8 6.8
Aximage 31 Aug–3 Sep 2014 602 32.1 51.9 16.0 19.8
Eurosondagem 31 Jul–6 Aug 2014 1,033 35.7 29.0 35.3 6.7
Eurosondagem 3–9 Jul 2014 1,014 38.8 29.6 31.6 9.2
Aximage 4–7 Jul 2014 593 30.5 54.8 14.7 24.3
Eurosondagem 2–5 Jun 2014 1,025 36.0 31.3 32.7 4.7
Aximage 1–4 Jun 2014 608 28.0 7.7 64.3 20.3
Eurosondagem 1–7 May 2014 1,005 38.1 30.1 31.8 8.0
Aximage 2–5 May 2014 605 31.3 56.5 12.2 25.2
UCP–CESOP 12–14 Apr 2014 1,117 48 52 — 4
Aximage 9–12 Apr 2014 613 33.3 55.8 10.9 22.5
Eurosondagem 3–9 Apr 2014 1,011 39.6 29.7 30.7 9.9
Eurosondagem 6–12 Mar 2014 1,021 41.5 29.4 29.1 12.1
Aximage 8–11 Mar 2014 587 34.6 53.6 11.8 19.0
Aximage 9–12 Feb 2014 604 31.6 58.9 9.5 27.3
Eurosondagem 6–12 Feb 2014 1,025 40.0 31.3 28.7 8.7
Eurosondagem 9–15 Jan 2014 1,010 38.9 31.8 29.3 7.1
Aximage 7–10 Jan 2014 601 31.6 56.9 11.5 25.3
Eurosondagem 5–10 Dec 2013 1,035 38.0 32.4 29.6 5.6
Aximage 6–9 Dec 2013 609 32.6 54.2 13.2 21.6
Marktest 19–21 Nov 2013 803 18.0 65.4 16.6 47.4
Aximage 6–9 Nov 2013 602 23.8 65.7 10.5 41.9
Eurosondagem 30 Oct–5 Nov 2013 1,005 36.7 33.1 30.2 3.6
Marktest 22–25 Oct 2013 803 19.3 61.0 19.7 41.7
Eurosondagem 2–8 Oct 2013 1,010 36.1 34.5 29.4 1.6
Marktest 17–19 Sep 2013 801 21.3 60.3 18.4 39.0
Eurosondagem 5–11 Sep 2013 1,038 33.5 34.2 32.3 0.7
Aximage 1–3 Sep 2013 609 25.9 61.9 12.2 36.0
Eurosondagem 25–31 Jul 2013 1,020 33.0 35.8 31.2 2.8
UCP–CESOP 27–29 Jul 2013 1,096 46 54 — 8
Marktest 16–18 Jul 2013 804 18.8 62.2 19.0 43.4
Aximage 8–11 Jul 2013 603 23.9 64.8 11.3 40.9
Eurosondagem 5–10 Jul 2013 1,007 29.8 35.3 34.9 5.5
Aximage 4–7 Jun 2013 599 18.4 67.0 14.6 48.6
Eurosondagem 30 May–4 Jun 2013 1,028 31.2 33.9 34.9 2.7
Marktest 27–30 May 2013 802 18.3 65.8 15.9 47.5
Aximage 7–10 May 2013 604 21.0 63.9 15.1 42.9
Eurosondagem 2–8 May 2013 1,009 31.8 33.0 35.2 1.2
Eurosondagem 5–10 Apr 2013 1,025 32.9 31.7 35.4 1.2
UCP–CESOP 9–11 Mar 2013 949 48 52 — 4
Eurosondagem 28 Feb–5 Mar 2013 1,022 36.2 32.6 31.2 3.6
Aximage 5–8 Feb 2013 602 24.2 61.3 14.5 37.1
Eurosondagem 30 Jan–5 Feb 2013 1,011 39.6 30.8 29.6 8.8
Marktest 15–21 Jan 2013 803 20.3 62.8 16.9 42.5
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2013 603 24.2 62.3 13.5 38.1
Eurosondagem 3–8 Jan 2013 1,010 37.6 31.8 30.6 5.8
Eurosondagem 5–11 Dec 2012 1,034 36.9 33.0 30.1 3.9
Aximage 4–7 Dec 2012 609 19.2 63.8 17.0 44.6
Eurosondagem 7–13 Nov 2012 1,033 36.8 32.6 30.6 4.2
Aximage 30 Oct–6 Nov 2012 602 18.0 62.2 19.8 44.2
Eurosondagem 4–9 Oct 2012 1,021 34.1 31.3 34.6 2.8
Aximage 1–4 Oct 2012 600 20.2 57.8 22.0 37.6
Marktest 17–20 Sep 2012 805 16.5 68.2 15.3 51.7
UCP–CESOP 15–17 Sep 2012 1,132 49 51 — 2
Eurosondagem 10–13 Sep 2012 1,037 35.1 29.9 35.0 5.2
Aximage 3–6 Sep 2012 600 27.0 50.2 22.8 23.2
Eurosondagem 9–14 Aug 2012 1,011 34.4 31.8 33.8 2.6
Marktest 17–20 Jul 2012 803 23.4 60.9 15.7 37.5
Eurosondagem 5–10 Jul 2012 1,036 33.8 32.8 33.4 1.0
Marktest 19–22 Jun 2012 800 28.6 56.4 15.0 27.8
Eurosondagem 7–12 Jun 2012 1,022 34.4 34.1 31.5 0.3
Aximage 4–6 Jun 2012 600 24.4 55.1 20.5 30.7
UCP–CESOP 26–28 May 2012 1,366 56 44 — 12
Marktest 22–24 May 2012 807 28.4 53.8 17.8 25.4
Eurosondagem 10–15 May 2012 1,011 34.9 33.2 31.9 1.7
Aximage 2–5 May 2012 600 23.1 57.5 19.4 34.4
Marktest 17–21 Apr 2012 810 21.9 62.3 15.8 40.4
Eurosondagem 11–17 Apr 2012 1,036 37.1 32.4 30.5 4.7
Aximage 3–5 Apr 2012 600 20.2 60.7 18.8 40.5
Eurosondagem 8–13 Mar 2012 1,021 39.2 33.2 27.6 6.0
Aximage 5–7 Mar 2012 600 21.5 59.3 19.2 37.8
Marktest 14–22 Feb 2012 800 23.6 61.1 15.3 37.5
Eurosondagem 2–7 Feb 2012 1,010 43.8 31.8 24.4 12.0
Aximage 1–4 Feb 2012 600 21.9 57.1 21.0 35.2
Marktest 17–22 Jan 2012 800 31.9 51.2 16.9 19.3
Eurosondagem 5–10 Jan 2012 1,064 47.0 25.3 27.7 21.7
Aximage 3–6 Jan 2012 600 38.3 36.5 25.2 1.8
Eurosondagem 7–13 Dec 2011 1,033 50.8 24.4 24.8 26.4
Aximage 5–8 Dec 2011 600 33.3 37.9 28.8 4.6
Marktest 15–19 Nov 2011 804 41.9 35.3 22.8 6.6
Eurosondagem 10–15 Nov 2011 1,025 52.3 23.0 24.7 29.3
Aximage 7–10 Nov 2011 600 34.5 36.2 29.3 1.7
Eurosondagem 20–25 Oct 2011 1,032 51.9 24.1 24.0 27.8
Marktest 18–22 Oct 2011 809 34.2 45.2 20.6 11.0
Aximage 3–5 Oct 2011 600 37.8 32.8 29.4 5.0
Eurosondagem 22–27 Sep 2011 1,036 50.7 26.0 23.3 24.7
Marktest 20–23 Sep 2011 804 39.9 37.1 23.0 2.8
UCP–CESOP 10–11 Sep 2011 1,457 72 28 — 44
Aximage 7–10 Sep 2011 600 37.6 28.1 34.3 9.5
Eurosondagem 26–30 Aug 2011 1,025 54.1 24.4 21.5 29.7
Eurosondagem 14–19 Jul 2011 1,022 56.8 25.0 18.2 31.8
Aximage 5–8 Jul 2011 600 53.0 21.2 25.8 31.8
Eurosondagem 26–28 Jun 2011 1,010 59.4 26.0 14.6 33.4
Marktest 28–31 May 2011 1,208 44.7 36.7 18.6 8.0
UCP–CESOP 21–22 May 2011 1,490 73 27 — 46
Marktest 9–10 May 2011 805 47.5 36.0 16.5 11.5
Aximage 29 Apr–2 May 2011 600 38.1 37.4 24.5 0.7
UCP–CESOP 30 Apr–1 May 2011 1,370 75 25 — 50
Marktest 15–17 Apr 2011 805 35.3 46.6 18.1 11.3
UCP–CESOP 2–3 Apr 2011 1,288 51 37 12 14
Aximage 28–30 Mar 2011 600 42.3 34.6 23.1 7.7
Eurosondagem 27–30 Mar 2011 1,021 51.4 32.6 16.0 18.8
Marktest 18–23 Mar 2011 805 47.0 33.6 19.4 13.4
Aximage 3–7 Mar 2011 600 50.3 23.7 26.0 26.6
Eurosondagem 23–28 Feb 2011 1,021 54.1 32.6 13.3 21.5
Marktest 17–23 Feb 2011 797 49.4 29.4 21.2 20.0
Aximage 1–3 Feb 2011 600 52.1 28.1 19.8 24.0
Eurosondagem 3–8 Feb 2011 1,025 52.5 32.0 15.5 20.5

References

  1. ^ Rui Rio: 21.5
  2. ^ Rui Rio: 15.1
  3. ^ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
  4. ^ a b All voters asked.
  5. ^ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.
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