Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the next Portuguese legislative election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2025 Portuguese legislative election, held on 18 May, to the present day.

Nationwide polling

Polling

For the events during these years, see 2025 in Portugal.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout AD PS CH IL L CDU BE PAN
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
 O Lead
Intercampus[a] 11–18 Jul 2025 606 ? 26.3 23.6 20.2 7.3 9.9 4.0 2.8 3.3 — 2.6 2.7
Intercampus[b] 5–15 Jun 2025 616 ? 29.9 21.8 21.7 8.4 7.4 3.4 1.8 3.9 — 1.8 8.1
2025 legislative election[1] 18 May 2025 — 58.3 31.8
91 		22.8
58 		22.8
60 		5.4
9 		4.1
6 		2.9
3 		2.0
1 		1.4
1 		0.3
1 		6.5
0 		9.0

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date
José Luis Carneiro (cropped).jpg
 N Both/
O 		NO Lead
Intercampus 11–18 Jul 2025 43.2 24.1 — — — 32.7 19.1
63.9 — 17.7 — — 18.5 46.2
Intercampus 5–15 Jun 2025 56.3 28.7 — — — 14.9 27.6

Leaders' ratings

Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10[c] (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Nuno Melo
José Luis Carneiro (cropped).jpg
Mariana Leitão, IX Convenção Nacional da IL (Agência Lusa).png
 Lead
Intercampus 11–18 Jul 2025 5.8 5.0 — 5.8 4.8 — 5.4 5.8 4.6 4.4 5.0 Tie
Intercampus 5–15 Jun 2025 5.8 5.0 4.6 — 4.6 5.6 — 5.8 4.6 4.2 5.0 Tie

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Luís Montenegro's cabinet
Approve Disapprove Neither No opinion Net
Intercampus 11–18 Jul 2025 606 26.2 39.6 32.7 1.5 6.9

Notes

  1. ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (8.0%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 24.2%; PS: 21.7%; CHEGA: 18.6%; Livre: 9.1%; IL: 6.7%; CDU: 3.7%; PAN: 3.0%; BE: 2.6%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
  2. ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.7%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 27.0%; PS: 19.7%; CHEGA: 19.6%; IL: 7.6%; Livre: 6.7%; PAN: 3.5%; CDU: 3.1%; BE: 1.6%; Others/Invalid: 1.6%.
  3. ^ Intercampus and Aximage polls rate party leaders from 1 to 5. CESOP–UCP poll rates party leaders from 0 to 20. The results are adapted to match the ICS/ISCTE polls.

References

  1. ^ "Resultados Globais Legislativas 2025" (in Portuguese). Lisbon: Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 1 June 2025.
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